There’s never a wrong time for a reality check, so let’s take one on the status of Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts.
At the moment, Betts has leapfrogged the broad shoulders of Bogaerts and seemingly landed light years ahead. When a player starts getting fitted for a superstar’s cape and hear comparisons to Andrew McCutchen, it’s never a bad idea to slow down and catch one’s breath.
Remember, a year ago, Bogaerts was the budding, can’t-miss superstar and Betts was a promising second baseman in Double A.
If we were to flash forward a year — and five, 10, 15 years from now — how many times will we have flip-flopped on their rankings? Will Betts be able to maintain his current “lead” over Bogaerts in terms of showing signs of being the more complete and ultimately better player or is Bogaerts going to catch and surpass him? Are we all guilty of falling for the hype of Betts at the expense of discounting Bogaerts’ bright future?
Nobody’s crystal ball is perfect, obviously. That prospect rankings, as well intentioned as they are, can turn into a crapshoot in a very short amount of time is a well-known fact. But projecting talent is an indispensable facet of business for every franchise as it plots its future and destiny.
So when you ask scouts who followed Betts and Bogaerts all of last season and this season about which player truly has the goods and seems destined for that perennial All-Star career, it’s not really a debate.
They all like Bogaerts.
But they love Betts.
“Look, Xander Bogaerts has had success in the big leagues already and still has a bright future,” one scout said. “But I don’t think you could find anyone in baseball who would pick Bogaerts over Betts right now. Mookie is one of those freaks of nature when it comes to his baseball smarts and athletic ability.
Said another scout: “I’d bet on Betts without hesitation, for sure, to have the All-Star type of career you’re talking about over Bogaerts. And I’d still give Bogaerts a better than 50-50 chance of doing the same thing. I think Bogaerts has a good shot to be above the norm in his career, but Mookie — Mookie Betts makes quicker adjustments to his game than anybody I’ve seen in the last 20 years. I couldn’t sit here and tell you what he’s not capable of doing.”
Offensively, Bogaerts has catching up to do.
“Betts clearly has the better bat, he gets the barrel of the bat faster to the ball than Bogaerts does,” said a scout. “It’s surprised me how quick his bat is. There’s such power there that he generates, and it’s deceptive power.”
All the scouts we polled emphasized Betts’ superior athletic ability as the key to his ascendance over Bogaerts. It’s not about which player works harder or is striving for excellence more but it’s more about who is the most athletically gifted.
“When you’re talking Mookie Betts, you’re talking a Deion Sanders-type of athlete,” said one scout. “Xander’s an athlete, too, but it’s tough to compare him to Mookie because Mookie’s so good. Xander’s that normal, loose athletic-bodied kid but Mookie, I would say Mookie’s going to reach the All-Star stage before Xander does. Xander’s going to be a good major league shortstop — and those aren’t easy to come by any means — and a borderline All-Star.”
None of the scouts came close to calling Bogaerts overrated or not worthy of even being in the discussion with Betts.
But when attention is shifted from the future to their respective track records — what they have done vs. those rankings — Betts always comes out ahead.
One tangible point of comparison is what happened last season, when Bogaerts was asked to switch from shortstop to third base while Betts was asked to move from second base to the outfield.
That the move coincided with Bogaerts’ half-season long slump at the plate did not escape the eyes of many — scouts and non-scouts.
That Betts not only barely blinked at the transition but also turned a stumbling block into a stepping-stone did not go unnoticed, either.
“I saw him when he first went to the outfield last summer and he could not throw at all — his accuracy was not terrible but there was not much strength,” a scout said of Betts. “But now that he’s stretched it out, he’s got at least an average arm now. For a kid who never played center field until the middle of last summer, it now looks as if he’s played there his whole career. And I thought he was a great second baseman.”
One scout sensed Betts possesses a tough protective shell.
“When you talk about position changes, you really have to evaluate the player mentally,” the scout said. “The fear of embarrassment is real. Mookie took off with his position change. Xander, I sense, is more sensitive to how he is perceived.”
Each player has his own baseball IQ. Tapping that is always the goal but reaching it as quickly as possible is a close second.
“Mookie’s got more baseball player in him as youngster than others his age — everything is so calculated and under control,” one scout said. “His maturity as a baseball player is coming way more quickly than others his age.”
They each are maturing in their baseball IQ at different rates, so calculate the height of their respective trajectories at your own risk. There may be a difference in the mental approaches of the two players, but the scouts agreed that Betts’ superior physical ability is the true separator.
That Bogaerts was allowed to stay in the big leagues all of last year despite his struggles should pay dividends down the road, probably as early as this year, the scouts agreed. That he could suddenly blossom at the plate while playing the more demanding position of shortstop — compared to Betts’ center field — all season long without the threat of being moved could mean that Bogaerts’ launch could be imminent.
Could be.
What matters most could be that the Sox allow Betts and Bogaerts to reach their potential at their own speed. That one team boasts a pair of 22-year-olds with this kind of combined talent and potential verges on a special moment in team history.
Bagwell and Biggio. Jeter and Posada. Canseco and McGwire. Rice and Lynn.
Betts and Bogaerts may yet reach that status. Right now, half of that equation feels like a surer bet than the other.
Rough start for Bryant?
One of the scouts we polled also weighed in on Cubs rookie phenom Kris Bryant, who made his major league debut Friday, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. Before that game, the scout predicted that Bryant would likely not be able to take off like a rocket.
“I think he’s going to have some issues, there’s some length to that swing,” the scout said. “He’s a big guy. I think his holes will be exposed earlier than someone with a swing like, say, Betts. I think you’ll see a lot of strikeouts.” . . .
In case you find the demise of the Yankees entertaining, you’ll delight in Yankees general manager Brian Cashman’s on-the-record comments to ESPN.com.
“Our defensive mistakes have been shocking,” Cashman said after his team lost each of its first three series. “Our won-loss column has been affected by every aspect of the game. One night it’s the defense, the next night it’s the offense, then it’s the base-running. It all depends on which game you’re looking at. We have not played consistent baseball at all, in any facet, and that’s why we’re 3-6.”
Pedro feeling Patriot-ic
Pedro Martinez follows a bit of football every winter and considers himself a Patriots fan, so he was pleased to get a chance to catch up with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick when they were all involved in Opening Day ceremonies at Fenway Park on Monday.
Martinez even got to flip a couple of pitches to Brady in the batting cage behind the Red Sox dugout. “He was really swinging,” Martinez said of Brady, once drafted as a catcher by Martinez’ old team, the Montreal Expos. “He’s got a pretty good swing; he’s a tall, lanky guy. He pulled everything. He told me that was the first time he took batting practice in such a long time.”
Brady did get good wood on one Martinez offering.
“His bat sounded really powerful on that one hit,” Martinez said. “He took me deep, so we stopped there. Time to go.”
Martinez also enjoyed catching up with Belichick, whom he admires greatly.
“There’s no crying in football,” Martinez said, alluding to Deflate-Gate. “Deflated balls, my ass.”
Around the horn
Six new placards have been placed above door frames in the Red Sox clubhouse. Against a backdrop of a photo of the “2013” championship banner unfurling over the “2007” banner that is draped across the Green Monster are six one-word sayings that perhaps add up to the team motto: Excellence, Sacrifice, Resilience, Trust, Commitment and Accountability. . . .
Reliever Craig Breslow will be holding his third annual “Sip Happens” fund-raiser April 30, at WGBH-TV studios in Brighton. The event, focused on food and wine-tasting, is devoted to bringing in funds for childhood cancer research and awareness. Last year’s event raised more than $300,000. Many of Breslow’s teammates are expected to be on hand. For more information, go to strike3foundation.org. . . .
Big Papi has set a date for his annual David Ortiz Children’s Fund Gala. The event will take place on June 22 (, at the Boston Marriott Copley Place. The event, held in conjunction with the Mass General Hospital for Children and the World Pediatric Project, provides critical pediatric healthcare to children in New England and the Dominican Republic.
To reserve tickets, go to david-ortiz.splashthat.com. To reserve tables or inquire about sponsorship opportunities, call 212-727-2142. . . .
The report on Major League Baseball’s racial and gender hiring practices is in and as has been the case in recent history, the results are decidedly mixed.
According to Richard Lapchick’s Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sport at the University of Central Florida, MLB received an “A” in racial hiring and a “C” in gender hiring.
On Opening Day rosters, 8.3 percent of players identified as African-American. Last year the figure was 8.2 percent. The last time that percentage was above 10 percent was in 2002.
There are now only two racial minority managers, or 6.7 percent, down from five and 16.7 percent last year.
At the start of the season there were two Latino, one African-American and one Asian general manager.
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